event-chain riskdomain transferfrozen score
Demo claim: the same frozen score keeps ranking power across five football validation groups, including club football and women's international football.
hybrid_score_v0_1; no local weights are fitted for Ligue 1 or WWC 2023 in the v0.5 release claim.| group_key | domain_shift_type | target_role | observations | positives | top10_lift | roc_auc | average_precision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup 2018 | same_family_cross_season | base_v0_4 | 71838 | 590 | 4.677836 | 0.741665 | 0.098395 |
| FIFA World Cup 2022 | same_family_cross_season | base_v0_4 | 234637 | 1808 | 4.977812 | 0.748289 | 0.111904 |
| Ligue 1 2021/2022 | club_transfer | v0_5_candidate | 101766 | 810 | 4.678828 | 0.734050 | 0.096429 |
| UEFA Euro 2024 | cross_competition_mens_international | base_v0_4 | 187924 | 1140 | 4.763006 | 0.756462 | 0.069080 |
| Women's World Cup 2023 | gender_transfer | v0_5_candidate | 226118 | 1664 | 4.843707 | 0.729025 | 0.089754 |
A top10_lift of 4.0 means that events in the highest-scored 10% contain about four times the future-goal rate of the average event population.
This demo does not forecast the final score of a match. It identifies and explains event-chain risk before future danger appears.