SYNATHRA.Sport v0.5

Domain-Transfer Validated Football Event-Chain Risk Twin

Decision: PASS_V0_5_DOMAIN_TRANSFER

SYNATHRA.Sport ranks football events and event chains by proximity to future danger. It is an event-risk and explanation layer, not a final-score prediction model.

Validation groups
5
New domains
2
Min goal lift
4.68
Min new-domain lift
4.68

Frozen score

hybrid_score_v0_1_raw = 0.50 * event_risk_calibrated + 0.05 * inside_hardened_chain + 0.10 * chain_delta_context + 0.35 * subtype_reliability hybrid_score_v0_1 = normalized deployment score in [0, 1]

Primary validation result: future_goal_h10

group_key domain_shift_type target_role observations positives top10_lift roc_auc average_precision
FIFA World Cup 2018 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 71838 590 4.677836 0.741665 0.098395
FIFA World Cup 2022 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 234637 1808 4.977812 0.748289 0.111904
Ligue 1 2021/2022 club_transfer v0_5_candidate 101766 810 4.678828 0.734050 0.096429
UEFA Euro 2024 cross_competition_mens_international base_v0_4 187924 1140 4.763006 0.756462 0.069080
Women's World Cup 2023 gender_transfer v0_5_candidate 226118 1664 4.843707 0.729025 0.089754

Correct product claim

Frozen hybrid_score_v0_1 retains event-risk ranking power across men's international tournaments, a club competition, and a women's international tournament.

Boundary: This is not a bookmaker odds model, not a final-score prediction model, and not a universal football model.