Robust
A stronger public demonstration subtype that passed the current rule/filter layer with stable enough evidence for illustrative use.
Site patch v0.1.1
Method notes for the public report.
Definitions for the target, score components, chain-card metrics, robustness labels and versioning. This patch clarifies the existing v0.5 validation release; it does not change the reported metrics.
Target definition
future_goal_h10
future_goal_h10 is positive when a goal occurs within the next 10 event steps after the evaluated event. The top-10 lift compares the positive rate in the top-ranked 10% slice with the base-rate reference. The baseline line in the validation figure is therefore normalized to 1.0.
Hybrid score glossary
What the formula terms mean.
hybrid_score_v0_1_raw =
0.50 * event_risk_calibrated
+ 0.05 * inside_hardened_chain
+ 0.10 * chain_delta_context
+ 0.35 * subtype_reliability
| Term | Type / scale | Definition |
|---|---|---|
event_risk_calibrated | continuous, 0-1 | Normalized calibrated event-level risk estimate. |
inside_hardened_chain | binary, 0/1 | Event belongs to a filtered and stabilized chain pattern. |
chain_delta_context | continuous, 0-1 | Normalized local change in risk inside the selected event window. |
subtype_reliability | continuous, 0-1 | Reliability weight attached to the event subtype in the validation setup. |
Chain-card metrics
Risk peak and risk delta.
risk_peak is the maximum normalized hybrid score inside the selected chain-card window. risk_delta is the local increase between the lower-risk part of the selected window and the peak-risk point. These values are normalized scores, not direct scoring probabilities.
Robustness labels
Robust vs promising.
Promising
A useful product example that should be expanded with more cross-domain evidence before being treated as stable.
Versioning
How to read the version labels.
Synathra.Sport v0.5 is the validation engine/release. Report v0.1 is the first product-oriented media and academy report. Site patch v0.1.1 adds documentation definitions and does not change the validation score.