Validation summary

Domain-transfer validation snapshot.

This page replaces the SITE-0.2 draft validation block with the real Synathra.Sport v0.5 public CSV assets: public_v0_5_core_label_metrics.csv and public_v0_5_future_goal_h10_summary.csv.

Open documents Download core metrics CSV Download H10 summary CSV
5
validation groups
3
public labels
2
v0.5 candidate transfer groups
4.678–4.978
future_goal_h10 top10_lift range

Future-goal H10 ROC AUC range

0.729–0.756

The future-goal H10 summary contains 5 group-level rows, 822 283 observations and 6 012 positive cases.

Core label metric coverage

15 rows

The core metrics table covers 3 public labels across 5 validation groups. The full core top10_lift range is 2.925–4.978; the full ROC AUC range is 0.657–0.756.

Validation design

Groups and labels included in the public v0.5 evidence.

The public validation evidence covers tournament-level and transfer-domain checks. The target_role field separates the base v0.4 reference role from the v0.5 candidate transfer role.

Validation groups

  • FIFA World Cup 2018
  • FIFA World Cup 2022
  • Ligue 1 2021/2022
  • UEFA Euro 2024
  • Women's World Cup 2023

Public labels

  • future_goal_h10
  • future_high_xg_shot_h10
  • future_shot_h10

Primary validation table

Future-goal H10 summary.

Source: public_v0_5_future_goal_h10_summary.csv . This is the compact five-group summary used for the main public validation snapshot.

Group Domain shift Target role Observations Positives top10_lift ROC AUC Average precision
FIFA World Cup 2018 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 71 838 590 4.678 0.742 0.098
FIFA World Cup 2022 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 234 637 1 808 4.978 0.748 0.112
Ligue 1 2021/2022 club_transfer v0_5_candidate 101 766 810 4.679 0.734 0.096
UEFA Euro 2024 cross_competition_mens_international base_v0_4 187 924 1 140 4.763 0.756 0.069
Women's World Cup 2023 gender_transfer v0_5_candidate 226 118 1 664 4.844 0.729 0.090

Full public metric table

Core label metrics.

Source: public_v0_5_core_label_metrics.csv . This table preserves the public v0.5 label-level evidence across all released labels.

Group Domain shift Target role Label Observations Positives top10_lift ROC AUC Average precision
FIFA World Cup 2018 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 future_goal_h10 71 838 590 4.678 0.742 0.098
FIFA World Cup 2022 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 future_goal_h10 234 637 1 808 4.978 0.748 0.112
Ligue 1 2021/2022 club_transfer v0_5_candidate future_goal_h10 101 766 810 4.679 0.734 0.096
UEFA Euro 2024 cross_competition_mens_international base_v0_4 future_goal_h10 187 924 1 140 4.763 0.756 0.069
Women's World Cup 2023 gender_transfer v0_5_candidate future_goal_h10 226 118 1 664 4.844 0.729 0.090
FIFA World Cup 2018 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 future_high_xg_shot_h10 71 838 1 554 3.616 0.681 0.116
FIFA World Cup 2022 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 future_high_xg_shot_h10 234 637 3 986 4.077 0.710 0.141
Ligue 1 2021/2022 club_transfer v0_5_candidate future_high_xg_shot_h10 101 766 2 035 3.843 0.689 0.132
UEFA Euro 2024 cross_competition_mens_international base_v0_4 future_high_xg_shot_h10 187 924 3 386 4.114 0.712 0.126
Women's World Cup 2023 gender_transfer v0_5_candidate future_high_xg_shot_h10 226 118 4 014 4.076 0.704 0.141
FIFA World Cup 2018 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 future_shot_h10 71 838 5 156 2.925 0.670 0.190
FIFA World Cup 2022 same_family_cross_season base_v0_4 future_shot_h10 234 637 13 863 3.116 0.673 0.186
Ligue 1 2021/2022 club_transfer v0_5_candidate future_shot_h10 101 766 6 482 2.940 0.657 0.177
UEFA Euro 2024 cross_competition_mens_international base_v0_4 future_shot_h10 187 924 12 682 2.941 0.662 0.183
Women's World Cup 2023 gender_transfer v0_5_candidate future_shot_h10 226 118 15 555 2.937 0.668 0.195

Mobile UX rule: summary cards first, wide technical tables inside horizontal scroll containers, CSV download available.

Boundary of interpretation

Synathra.Sport v0.5 is not a bookmaker model and does not predict final scores. It explains and ranks event-chain risk before visible danger appears.

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