5
validation groups
Demo
Event-chain risk before visible danger.
This demo translates the v0.5 public package into the Synathra Lab site format: a frozen hybrid_score_v0_1 ranks football events and is checked against future goals within the next 10 events.
2
v0.5 transfer candidates
4.678-4.978
top10_lift range
0.729-0.756
ROC AUC range
Demo logic
What the demo shows.
The demo does not forecast final match scores. It shows whether the same frozen event-chain risk score ranks short-horizon danger across related football domains.
event stream
chain context
frozen score
future_goal_h10
risk explanation
Primary metric
Future-goal H10 ranking evidence.
The primary public demo metric is future_goal_h10. A top10_lift near 5 means that the highest-scored 10 percent of events contains roughly five times the future-goal rate of the average event population.
FIFA World Cup 2018
Domain shift: same_family_cross_season
top10 lift: 4.678
ROC AUC: 0.742
Events / positives: 71,838 / 590
Interpretation: the highest-scored 10 percent of events contain about 4.678 times the future-goal rate of the average event population.
FIFA World Cup 2022
Domain shift: same_family_cross_season
top10 lift: 4.978
ROC AUC: 0.748
Events / positives: 234,637 / 1,808
Interpretation: the highest-scored 10 percent of events contain about 4.978 times the future-goal rate of the average event population.
Ligue 1 2021/2022
Domain shift: club_transfer
top10 lift: 4.679
ROC AUC: 0.734
Events / positives: 101,766 / 810
Interpretation: the highest-scored 10 percent of events contain about 4.679 times the future-goal rate of the average event population.
UEFA Euro 2024
Domain shift: cross_competition_mens_international
top10 lift: 4.763
ROC AUC: 0.756
Events / positives: 187,924 / 1,140
Interpretation: the highest-scored 10 percent of events contain about 4.763 times the future-goal rate of the average event population.
Women's World Cup 2023
Domain shift: gender_transfer
top10 lift: 4.844
ROC AUC: 0.729
Events / positives: 226,118 / 1,664
Interpretation: the highest-scored 10 percent of events contain about 4.844 times the future-goal rate of the average event population.
Source table
Public v0.5 future goal H10 summary.
Source: public_v0_5_future_goal_h10_summary.csv. Total observations: 822,283; positives: 6,012.
| Group | Domain shift | Target role | Observations | Positives | top10_lift | ROC AUC | Average precision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup 2018 | same_family_cross_season | base_v0_4 | 71,838 | 590 | 4.678 | 0.742 | 0.098 |
| FIFA World Cup 2022 | same_family_cross_season | base_v0_4 | 234,637 | 1,808 | 4.978 | 0.748 | 0.112 |
| Ligue 1 2021/2022 | club_transfer | v0_5_candidate | 101,766 | 810 | 4.679 | 0.734 | 0.096 |
| UEFA Euro 2024 | cross_competition_mens_international | base_v0_4 | 187,924 | 1,140 | 4.763 | 0.756 | 0.069 |
| Women's World Cup 2023 | gender_transfer | v0_5_candidate | 226,118 | 1,664 | 4.844 | 0.729 | 0.090 |
Mobile UX rule: the evidence is summarized first, while the wide technical table remains available inside a horizontal scroll container.
Boundary
This demo does not forecast the final score of a match. It identifies and explains event-chain risk before future danger appears.